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Nete….Q1 2017…Big Surprise in store?

07 Apr

Now that we have Q4 out of the way and have seen how much mobile was really impacting and overshadowing the REAL growth story behind this company I thought I’d take a close look at Q1 and, what we might expect.

First, for a little background information, Q1 last year was reported on May 16th and so I’m expecting around that time again for this year. In other words..it’s coming up QUICK. There’s not too much of a time gap between the annual report and Q1 results. Last year Q1 came in at 11.26M in revenues. I thought i’d take a very close look at that and see if it might be a predictor of what to expect in a few weeks.

In order to do that, i went back to Q4 2015 and looked at the breakout of those numbers which i had to extract from the annual report as the company didn’t break out Q4 separately.  This is what they show.

Q4…..2015

North America  8,112,713

Mobile  5,554,155

Online  1,446,244

Total Q4 revenues = 15.1M

I then looked at Q1 2016 breakout

North America  7,852,648

Mobile 1,993,504

Online 1,414,907

Total Q1 2016 revenues = 11,261,059

Do you see what changed? Not much…except the mobile issue.  And this is the issue that continue throughout the year up to Q4 where it impacted a LOT our total revenues year over year. Making the comparison 15.3M vs 15.1M. And so, Q4 2016 Mobile revenues DECLINED to just 933,829 vs the 5.55M figure in Q4 2015. That is what distorted the REAL picture of enormous growth in our other businesses. And again..without that …Q4 would have been 20M….not 15.3M.  Because that 4.7M difference was ALL in the mobile category.

And so….to try to predict Q1 2017 what i did was to look at Q4 2016 breakdown. Here it is.

North America   12,688,033

Mobile  933,829

Online  1,701,438

Total Q4 2016 revenues = 15.32 M

If you look at LAST year then….. Q1 wouldn’t have been any different to speak of in the

North America category or the Online category. Perhaps it was some seasonal business coming off and new business coming on or, whatever made that up…that’s how it worked out last year.

And so….to try to predict Q1 this year….lets take that

North America  12.68M

Online  1.7M

And for Mobile JUST add in the

Mobile 988k

I did that because we are still going to be fighting the mobile issue by about 1M vs last year.

I am going to predict that Q1…..2017….will come in in the area of 15M +.

Making the COMPARISON to last year to be…

15M vs 11.2M 

35%….year over year growth is continuing.

 

We’ll see how this works out.  🙂

 

~Congo

jmho

all work is estimates and can change

Do your DD

Currently long NETE stock

 

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Posted by on April 7, 2017 in Uncategorized

 

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